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Roger Williams University

DOCS@RWU
Honors Theses

RWU Theses

5-6-2011

Use of Social Media in Presidential Campaigns: Do
Social Media Have an Effect on the Political
Behavior of Voters Aged 18-24?
Samantha Hamilton
Roger Williams University, shamilton297@g
...
edu

Follow this and additional works at: http://docs
...
edu/honors_theses
Part of the American Politics Commons, and the International Relations Commons
Recommended Citation
Hamilton, Samantha, "Use of Social Media in Presidential Campaigns: Do Social Media Have an Effect on the Political Behavior of
Voters Aged 18-24?" (2011)
...
Paper 4
...
rwu
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It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Theses by an
authorized administrator of DOCS@RWU
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iii

Table of Contents
Abstract
...
1
Defining New and Social Media
...
4
Voter Choice Effects
...
6
New Media Effect
...
10

Summary and Hypotheses
...
12
Participants
...
13

Results
...
17
Conclusion
...
23
Appendices
...

B—Experimental Manipulation
...

D—Experimental Manipulation
...


iv

26
34
35
36
37

Table of Figures
Figure 1: Use of Facebook
...
15
Figure 3: Use of Blogs
...
18

v

Abstract
Today, the idea of social media is radically different from the media of a decade ago
...
In the United States during election cycles, the use
of social media by presidential candidates has become a way for many voters to find out about
candidates
...
This study examines
whether campaigns that are more “social media savvy” will ultimately garner more votes,
specifically from those aged 18-24
...
However, there was a relationship between social media usage and
likelihood of voting for Republican candidates: when social media was used, participants were
less likely to vote for the Republican candidate than when no social media use was present
...
Almost 20 months later, that unknown senator was elected President of
the United States
...
As
Simba (2009) noted, Obama's campaign success had frequently been credited to his public
speaking and ability to inspire
...

The Obama campaign not only revolutionized how campaigns reached out to their
audiences, but it also affected how they fundraised
...
The use of the Internet as a fundraising tool led to a remarkably high number of small
denomination donations from a group of voters who had never previously been engaged in the
political process (Simba 2009)
...
Howard Dean's 2004 bid for
the Democratic presidential nomination offered the country a glimpse into what Internet
campaigning was capable of producing
...
Much like Barack Obama after him, Dean was
unknown prior to announcing his candidacy
...
These supporters thrived on
the ease that the Internet provided in making a donation, getting information, or coordinating an
event (Murray 2005)
...
Murray (2005) stated that young voters were
typically early adopters of new technology so Dean's use of these methods clearly showed his
dedication to reaching out to these voters in particular
...
The influx of newly involved voters was pivotal to the support that Dean was
able to gain, as he “would not have been able to gain the support of the traditional active party
base with his seemingly progressive platform” (Murray, 2005, pg
...
While his bid for the
nomination was ultimately unsuccessful, Dean still managed to introduce new and social media
to the world of political campaigns
...
As new
and social media change and evolve, it is those in the 18-24 age group who adopt and apply these
new types of Internet use
...
As a result, it appears that it will be extremely important for politicians to utilize
this network moving forward
...

Defining New and Social Media
Although several scholars have looked at the new media's impact and influence (Baum
and Groeling 2008, Graber 1996, Han 2008, Morris 2002), few have actually provided a working

2

definition of the term
...
16), and is most commonly associated with
those technologies that pertain to the Internet
...
Peters then went on to provide two definitions for
new media
...
18)
...
The five stages of the arc include invention, innovation, regulation,
distribution, and mainstream
...

Peters also defined new media as “media we do not yet know how to talk about” (2009,
pg
...
Ultimately, although it may prove true, this particular definition offers little help in
understanding new media
...

The term new media will refer to an umbrella term for communications technologies that utilize
the Internet as their primary platform and are constantly changing and evolving
...
However, it is important to
recognize that while social media may fall under the broad umbrella term of new media, social
media have its own distinguishing factors
...
The networking sites themselves are the platforms through
which social media occurs
...
Boyd and Ellison (2008) defined social
networking sites as:

3

web-based services that allow individuals to (1) construct a public
or semi-public profile within a bounded system, (2) articulate a list
of other users with whom they share a connection, and (3) view
and traverse their list of connections and those made by others
within the system (pg
...

This definition provided an outline for describing social media
...
This is generally the
model that social media follow
...
Specifically, social media will refer to Facebook, Twitter, YouTube,
and blogs in this analysis
...
Claasen (2007) claimed that “in a spatial model, citizens participate when
their proximity calculations reveal a non-zero policy stake in the election outcome” (pg
...
In
other words, if an individual recognized that their personal beliefs are not challenged by either
candidate in an election, they will not participate
...
Although this theory had been the traditionally accepted theory,
Claasen went on to claim that extremity of views may not play as large of a role in political
participation as previously believed
...


4

In addition, studies done in the 60s and 70s showed that racial solidarity also proved to be
a factor in political participation (Chong and Rogers 2007)
...
Chong and Rogers attributed this declining correlation to
differences in definition of both group solidarity and political participation
...
According the Chong and Rogers (2007), those members of the “common fate” group
tended to participate in a more traditional manner, where those members of the “black
autonomy” group tended to favor more radical forms of political participation, such as protests
and rallies
...
Considering that
solidarity can change over time, Chong and Rogers reasoned that it can also change across racial
and ethnic groups
...
McClurg and Holbrook (2009) stated that partisanship and
presidential evaluation are the fundamental influences on voter choice
...
495)
...
While voters in battleground
states were more likely to participate, and be heavily exposed to the candidates and messages,
voters in non-battleground states receive much less information about the candidates
...

Gilens, Vavreck, and Cohen (2007) focused on whether a decline of available information
about political candidates is correlated with a decline in voters' ability to make informed
decisions
...
found that news consumption
had fallen dramatically over the past 50 years
...
stated that this does not make up for the majority of
the decline
...
However, Gilens et al
...
In
addition, Gilens et al
...

The Cable Effect
As a result of the ability of individuals to obtain 24-hour access to media sources through
cable news channels, Graber (1996) argued that new media allowed individuals to form their
own opinions and draw their own conclusions from the media sources they utilized, making it
almost impossible for newsmakers to frame stories how they saw fit
...
Graber stated that “while available food for political
thought has grown, despite much overlap and redundancy, the appetite for it and the capacity to
consume it remain limited” (1996, pg
...
Ultimately, Graber warned that as technology and
new media continued to evolve, the information gap “between the information privileged and the

6

information underclass is likely to grow” (1996, pg
...
She said that the influence that the
educated class currently holds over politics will only continue to grow as these media resources
advanced
...
Cable
television provided citizens with the ability to simply change the channel—an ability that was
not afforded when broadcast television was the primary medium as almost every channel would
broadcast a presidential announcement
...
Baum and Kernell (1996) looked at two
main areas
...
The second being whether they were less
likely to watch the president because they had an inherent dislike of politics, the political
process, the current political climate or the current President
...
In addition, with cable as competition, broadcast stations became
less likely to give the president airtime
...
Most
notably, they suggested that Presidents limit the number of television announcements to only
those which were deemed most important
...

New Media Effect

7

The influence of new media on candidate evaluation has become an increasingly
important issue as the Internet becomes a more widely available medium
...
Tolbert and McNeil concluded that the Internet could help to fill a void that is
left by broadcast and cable news
...
According to Tolbert and McNeil (2003), cable
and broadcast news is riddled with gatekeepers and newsmakers with biases
...
At the time that this article was written, Internet use was most frequently
afforded to those who were already predisposed to political participations: upper-middle class,
college educated citizens
...
Tolbert and
McNeil concluded that new media, specifically the Internet, provided a solid opportunity to
disseminate information and influence voter choice
...
Morris conducted an experiment in which one group of participants was
exposed to what they thought was real news
...

Through this experiment, Morris came to the conclusion that in reality overly-dramatic news did

8

have a negative influence on perceptions of political leaders
...

While the dramatization of new media news sources has been a cause for concern, the
concept of new media encouraging ideological and partisan extremism has been discussed
...
They focused on
DailyKos
...
com, and FoxNews
...
347)
...
To avoid this problem, they compared the headlines from the aforementioned
partisan outlets to those that are least likely to show bias—namely the wire services Reuters and
the Associated Press
...
In doing so, Baum and Groeling
assumed that non-partisan news outlets, whether traditional or new media, did not select news
stories because they would be advantageous to a certain political party
...

Ultimately, Baum and Groeling found that DailyKos
...
com, and
FoxNews
...
They found that each of these
news sources was more likely to choose stories based on their implied ability to benefit the
political party most closely associated with their ideologies
...
Baum and Groeling cited a 2006 survey by the PEW Center on Media
Consumption that found that while fewer people tend to follow partisan news sources, those who
do follow partisan news source are “more likely than typical individuals to discuss politics with
others and, in doing so, to disseminate their views to the broader public” (2008, pg
...
This
eventually suggested that an increase of new media use for partisan means would have a large
impact on the amount of partisan ideas disseminated
...
Kushin and Yamamoto (2010) attempted to determine
whether social media usage actually had an impact on political self-efficacy and involvement
...
613)
...
The survey focused on three major
factors of political involvement on the Internet: “attention to social media for campaign
information, online expression about the campaign, and attention to traditional Internet sources
for campaign information” (Kushin and Yamamoto, 2010, pg
...
It was expected that
attention to social media during the 2008 Election would be positively connected to political selfefficacy and involvement—however, the survey found no significant positive connection
between the two
...


10

They suggested that further studies continue to explore the possibility that social media has an
effect on political beliefs and involvement in the political process
...
In a political campaign, social media resources, like Facebook, have allowed voters
to become more politically engaged with candidates
...
555)
...

Metzgar and Maruggi (2009) also discussed the concept of candidates losing control of
their message
...
This lack of gatekeepers,
however, also suggested a lack of fact-checkers and moderators: this ultimately meant that some
of the information presented through social media was false
...
Metzgar and Maruggi (2009) concluded that while social media can be
detrimental to political candidates, if candidates accepted social media for what it is instead of
fighting it, the benefits of reaching networks upon networks on untapped populations far
outweighs any negative effects
...
As these types of technology evolve and change, their use

11

by young voters evolves and changes
...
Prior research is quickly outdated and, in
some cases, attempts to look at social media sources that are simply too new
...

In the earliest cases, such as Howard Dean's run for the Democratic nomination in 2004,
social media was relied upon too heavily—to the point where those not engaged with these
technologies fell out of the loop when it came to new information on the candidate
...
Some claim that the sources used during the 2008 Election were simply too new
to be able to accurately measure their impact
...

H2 :The presence of social media in a presidential campaign will
positively affect support of that candidate among voters
aged 18-24
...
The experimental manipulation was embedded within
a survey questionnaire measuring general political attitudes and behavior (See Appendix A for

12

the survey
...
The experiment then is a
classic 2 (media usage) x 2 (candidate’s partisanship) factorial design
...
Participants were not told the purpose of
the study prior to taking the survey, but they were debriefed on its purpose following completion
...
Participants were then asked to read a
candidate brochure that included background information, political experience, policy views, and
social media use
...
Finally,
respondents were asked for standard demographic characteristics
...
Candidate partisanship was experimentally manipulated as
either Democrat or Republican in an attempt to see whether the political party of the candidate
made a difference in a respondent's choice to vote for the candidate
...
This allowed for analysis of the role that social media
plays in voter choice and political participation
...
The first dependent variable was the likelihood that the participant would vote in the
upcoming election where the candidate that (s)he read about in the candidate brochure was on
the ballot
...

The second dependent variable is the respondent’s likelihood of voting for the candidate
and is measured by the question:
On a scale of 1-5 with 1=Strongly Disagree and 5=Strongly Agree,
how much do you agree with the following statement: I would vote
for John Smith in this election
...
I analyzed whether either of the experimentally manipulated factors (focusing
mainly on presence or absence social media) or their interaction, had a statistically significant
effect on either voter participation or voter choice
...

I expected that the presence of social media would cause a significant increase on both
voter participation and positive voter choice
...
For example, a respondent may not have had a positive likelihood for voting for a
candidate because they did not agree with the ideology or issue positions of a particular
candidate regardless of their social media use
...
However, the vast majority of respondents utilized Facebook

14

much more than other types of social media
...
4% of respondents utilized Facebook to obtain
information on political candidates 7 days per week, while only 9% utilize Twitter and only 4%
utilize blogs at the same rate (See Figures 1-3)
...


Re s po

20

Use of Twitter

140
10
0
120

10

115
0

1

12
6

2

14

11
6

3

4

5

6

Number of Days Used per Week

N umber of Respondents

100

80

60

Figure 2: The number of days per week that respondents utilize Twitter for information on
40

15
20

12

Re s po

political candidates

Use of Blogs
120
111

N umber of Respondents

100

80

60

Figure 3: The number of days per week that respondents utilize blogs for information on
40
political candidates

Re s po

According to the results from an ANOVA statistical analysis, there was no relationship
between social20media usage and voter participation
...

8
there was no change in how likely a respondent was
As a result my

first hypothesis0(H1), that the presence of social media usage would positively effect voter
0

participation, was not supported
...

However, I did find a statistically significant relationship between social media and voter choice,
with a significance of p=
...
Although the relationship was not as I had originally predicted,
there was clearly a relationship present
...
63
...
The mean for
the Republican candidate who did not use social media was 3
...
05
...
In terms of participation, the fact
that my manipulation of social media use had no significant effect on participation could be
attributed to the high level of importance that society places on voting
...

Similarly, Gerber and Rogers (2009 pg
...
”
As prior research has shown, social pressures to participate in an election could likely outweigh
any experimental manipulation
...

For participants who received a Democratic candidate brochure, the presence or absence
of social media had no significant impact on whether or not they chose to vote for the candidate
...
63
...
The Republican candidate who utilized social media received a
mean of 3
...
However,
the Republican candidate who did not utilize social media received a mean of 3
...


Figure 4: The relationship between social media use by a presidential candidate and voters’
likelihood of voting for that candidate

Democratic candidates were evaluated equally regardless of social media usage by their
campaign, while Republican candidates who did not use social media were evaluated more
positively than Republican candidates who used social media as part of their campaigns
...
These
findings are contrary to what I initially predicted would be found—I believed that as social
media was manipulated, voter choice would change, specifically, that the presence of social
media would lead to a more positive candidate evaluations regardless of the candidate’s partisan
identification
...
This is
surprising as Democratic candidates like Howard Dean and Barack Obama emerged as social
media leaders and revolutionized how presidential campaigning is done
...
Social media
during a presidential election is not something that makes an impact because it is simply
expected
...
As a result, it is simply
regarded as the norm as opposed to the exception
...

22) “some 55% of all adults – and 74% of all internet users -- said they went online for news and
information about the election or to communicate with others about the race
...
During this election, Democratic voters utilized social media more than Republicans
(Pew 2009)
...

For Republican candidates, however, there was a significant relationship between social
media and voter choice
...

When social media was present in the Republican candidate brochure, participants were less
likely to vote for the candidate then when social media was not present for the Republican
candidate
...


19

This ultimately begs the question: what does this relationship mean? Although
Republican candidates have become bigger users of social media since 2008, the emergence of
social media as a Republican norm seems to have been rejected by young voters
...
” The first concern, that social media is a Democratic institution, directly explains
the relationship found between social media use and voter choice
...
As Democrats were the first, and most outspoken, users and
proponents of social media as a campaign tool, social media may have an intrinsic reputation of
being a partisan campaign tactic
...
Social media is, at its core, linked to popularity
...
Politicians who use social media are seen as being more relatable
than those who do not
...
Instead of a candidate
who has more Facebook posts and Tweets, Republican candidates who focus on the issues are
clearly better received
...
This brevity of issue discussion is clearly a problem for young
voters when it comes to Republican candidates
...
The nature of new and social media are that they are constantly changing and
evolving
...
Future extensions of this study would need to consider both sample and survey
design in order to appropriately expand upon my findings
...
A sample of college
students aged 18-24 is problematic in that this age group is younger and therefore lacks
experience in the political realm
...

When expanding on this study, it would be helpful to include a two-candidate
presentation
...
A two candidate race could either be interparty (i
...
one republican and one democrat), or intra-party (a primary setting with either two
republicans or two democrats)
...
For the primary campaign design, this would allow the
participant to directly evaluate candidates with similar beliefs, with the only experimental
manipulation being social media use
...
Regardless of
whether the impact is positive or negative, in the case of Republican candidates, does not change
the fact that social media clearly does influence young voters aged 18-24
...
While the campaigns
of Barack Obama and Howard Dean have shown the positives of utilizing social media in

21

engaging previously underutilized young voters, the findings of this study show the negatives
that can be associated with it
...


22

References
Baum, M
...
, & Groeling, T
...
New media and the polarization of American political
discourse
...

Baum, M
...
, & Kernell, S
...
Has cable ended the golden age of presidential television?
The American Political Science Review, 93(1), 99-114
...
M
...
B
...
Social network sites: Definition, history, and scholarship
...

Braungart, R
...
(1975)
...
Journal of Marriage and Family,
37(4), 823-839
...
, & Mokund, R
...
Even without technology youth media thrives
...

Chong, D
...
(2005)
...
Political Behavior,
27(4), 347-374
...
(2007)
...
Political Behavior, 29(3), 369-390
...
A
...
Personality and political socialization
...

Gerber, A
...
, & Rogers, T
...
Descriptive social norms and motivation to vote: Everyone's
voting and so should you
...

Gilens, M
...
, & Cohen, M
...
The mass media and the public's assessment of
political candidates, 1952-2000
...

Graber, D
...
(1976)
...
The Political
Opinion Quarterly, 40(3), 285-303
...
A
...
The new media and politics: What does the future hold? Political Science
and Politics, , 33-36
...
(2008)
...
Mass Communication & Society, 11, 62-81
...
M
...
Cognitive style and political learning in the 2000 U
...
presidential
election
...

Jackson, K
...
, Dorton, H
...
(2010)
...
The Journal of
American Culture, 33(1), 40-51
...
J
...
D
...
Introduction: The facebook election
...

Kushin, M
...
(2010)
...
Mass Communication and
Society, 13(5), 608-630
...
J
...
R
...
Voters' reactions to televised presidential debates:
Measurement of the source and magnitude of opinion change
...

Lupia, A
...
(2003)
...
PS: Political Science and Politics, 36(1), 77-82
...
D
...
M
...
Living in a battleground: Presidential campaigns and
fundamental predictors of voter choice
...

Metzgar, E
...
(2009)
...
Journal of
New Communications Research, 4(1), 141-165
...
(2002)
...
American Political
Science Association Annual Meeting,
Nuxoll, K
...
Election year: How can youth walk the walk? Youth Media Reporter, 5, 231233
...
(2009)
...
New Media Society, 11(13), 13-30
...
Online activities, daily | pew research
center's internet & american life project
...
pewinternet
...
aspx
Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project
...
Retrieved November 28, 2010, from
http://www
...
org/Trend-Data/Whos-Online
...
(2010)
...

Campaigns and Elections, 10
...
(2009)
...
The Western Journal of
Black Studies, 33(3), 186-191
...
(2009)
...
1-92, Rep
...

Talbot, D
...
d
...
Technology Review, 78-83
...
J
...
S
...
Unraveling the effects of the internet on political
participation
...


25

Appendix A
Introduction: The following survey is being conducted in conjunction with an undergraduate research
project at Roger Williams University
...
All responses will remain anonymous and results from the survey will be used in an academic
research project and will be presented at an academic conference
...
The
prizes for the raffle will be (10) $10 Dunkin’ Donuts gift cards
...
This entry form will not be linked with your survey, and any information given will not be used
for any purpose other than the raffle
...
There are no right or wrong
responses
...
For questions which ask for an explanation, please answer in the space provided
...

1
...
If no, please proceed to Question 3
...
Who did you vote for in the 2008 Presidential Election?
o Barack Obama
o John McCain
o Ralph Nader
o Other (please specify): ____________________________
3
...
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a republican, a democrat, an independent or what?
If you do not consider yourself a republican, a democrat, or an independent, please indicate
your partisanship in the space provided below
...
From the scale below, please choose the term that best describes your political ideology
...
On a scale of 1-5 with 1=Strongly Disagree and 5=Strongly Agree, how much do you agree with
the following statement: I plan on voting in the 2012 Presidential Election
...
Please
choose the number of days per week, ranging from 0-7, that you utilize each of the following sources of
media for information about political candidates
...
Please respond to the following questions using the provided scale with 1=Strongly
Disagree and 5=Strongly Agree
...

If a political candidate does not
have a web page, I will be less
likely to vote for him/her
...

I follow political candidates on
Facebook
...

Information presented on cable
news about political candidates is
generally true
...

If a political candidate does not
use Facebook, I will be less likely
to vote for him/her
...

Cable news is a reliable source for
information on political
candidates
...


o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

29

Strongly
Disagree
1

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

2

3

4

Strongly
Agree
5

I take the advice of friends before
voting for a political candidate
...


o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

If a candidate wants to appeal to
me, he/she should use social
media (Facebook, Twitter, blogs,
etc
...

Information presented on the
Internet about political candidates
is generally true
...


30

Section Four
In the following section you will be presented with a candidate
...

Please note: The term “social media” below refers to Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and blogs
...
A
...
D
...
On a scale of 1-5 with 1=Strongly Disagree and 5=Strongly Agree, how much do you agree with
the following statement: I would vote in this election
...
On a scale of 1-5 with 1=Strongly Disagree and 5=Strongly Agree, how much do you agree with
the following statement: I would vote for John Smith in this election
...

3
...

1
...
What is your age?
o 18
o 19
o 20
o 21
o 22
o Over 22
3
...
A
...
D
...
A
...
D
...
A
...
D
...
A
...
D

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