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Title: CFA Level 1 - Quantitative Methods
Description: I create this summary of knowledge related to CFA level 1 for my 2017 December exam. I got into the top 10% with this. Hope this can help you. Please note that this does not guarantee for your pass, which requires dedication, hardwork and consistency. In case having trouble with any part, please refer to CFA notebook/Schwesser.
Description: I create this summary of knowledge related to CFA level 1 for my 2017 December exam. I got into the top 10% with this. Hope this can help you. Please note that this does not guarantee for your pass, which requires dedication, hardwork and consistency. In case having trouble with any part, please refer to CFA notebook/Schwesser.
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Concepts
Nominal risk-free rate /
Real risk-free rate
Description
Time Value of Money
Nominal risk-free rate = Real risk-free rate + expected inflation rate
Required interest rate on a security Required interest rate on a securities = Nominal risk-free rate
+ default risk premium
+ liquidity premium
+ maturity risk premium
Effective annual rate (EAR)
πΈπ΄π = 1 + ππππππππ πππ‘π
β1
In which :
ππππππππ πππ‘π = π π‘ππ‘ππ ππππ’ππ πππ‘π π
π = ππ’ππππ ππ ππππππ’πππππ πππππππ πππ π¦πππ
FV / PV formula
πΉπ = ππ Γ 1 + πΌ βπ
ππ = πΉπ Γ 1 + πΌ βπ
PV of a perpetuity
ππ
Concepts
NPV decision rule
=
=
πΉπ
1 + πΌβπ
πππ
πΌβπ
Description
Discounted Cash Flow Applications
- (+) NPV β β shareholder wealth β Accept
- (-) NPV β β shareholder wealth β Reject
- 2 mutually exclusive projects β Accept project with higher (+) NPV
IRR decision rule
- IRR > Firm's required rate of return β Accept
- IRR < Firm's required rate of return β Reject
Problems with NPV and IRR
Mutually exclusive projects β might have conο¬ict result between NPV and IRR, due to :
- Different size of initial costs
- Different timing of CF
Holding period return (HPR)
(or Holding period yield - HPY)
Holding period return : % change in investment value over the holding period
π»ππ =
Money-weighted return /
Time-weighted rate of return
πΈπππππ π£πππ’π β π΅ππππππππ π£πππ’π + πΆπΉ ππππππ£ππ πΈπππππ π£πππ’π + πΆπΉ ππππππ£ππ
=
β1
π΅ππππππππ π£πππ’π
π΅ππππππππ π£πππ’π
Money weighted return : IRR on a portfolio, taking into account all cash inflows and outflows
Time-weighted rate of return : compound growth
(1 + π‘πππ π€πππβπ‘ππ πππ‘π ππ πππ‘π’ππ) = 1 + π»ππ
Bank discount yield (BDY)
Γ 1 + π»ππ
Γ β― Γ (1 + π»ππ )
Bank discount yield : express the dollar discount from the face (par) value as a fraction of the face value
π· 360
π = Γ
πΉ
π‘
In which :
π = ππππ’ππππ ππ π¦ππππ ππ π ππππ πππ πππ’ππ‘ πππ ππ
π· = ππππππ πππ πππ’ππ‘ = πΉπππ π£πππ’π β ππ’ππβππ π πππππ
πΉ = ππππ π£πππ’π
π‘ = ππ’ππππ ππ πππππππππ πππ¦π π‘ππ πππ‘π’πππ‘π¦
BDY is not representative of the return earned by an investor, due to :
- BDY annualises using simple interest β ignore eο¬ects of compound interest
- Based on bond's Face value instead of purchase price
- BDY annualises on a 360-day year
Effective annual yield (EAY)
Effective annual yield (EAY) : annualised value, based on a 365-day year, that accounts for compound interest rate
πΈπ΄π = 1 + π»ππ
Money market yield (or CD
equivalent yield)
Bond equivalent yield
/
β1
Money market yield (or CD equivalent yield) : annualised holding period yield, assuming a 360-day year
π
= π»ππ Γ 360βπ‘
π
=
360 Γ π
360 β π‘ Γ π
Bond equivalent yield : 2 Γ semiannual discount rate (because the coupon interest is paid in 2 semiannual payments)
π΅πππ πππ’ππ£πππππ‘ π¦ππππ = 2 Γ
1 + π»ππ
π΅πππ πππ’ππ£πππππ‘ π¦ππππ = 2 Γ 1 + πΈπ΄π
β1
...
Nominal scale - data is put into categories that have no particular order
2
...
Interval scale - Differences in data values are meaningful, but ratios are not meaningful
4
...
Procedures to construct a frequency distribution :
- Step 1 : Define the intervals - Too few intervals β data might be too broadly summarised ; Too many intervals β data might not be summarised enough
- Step 2 : Tally (assign) the observations
- Step 3 : Count the observations
Relative frequency = Absolute frequency Γ· Total number of observations
Cumulative frequency for an interval = sum of all absolute / relative frequencies for all values β€ that interval's max value
Histogram /
Frequency polygon
Histogram : bar chart of data that has been grouped into a frequency distribution
Frequency polygon :
- Horizontal axis : midpoint of each interval
- Vertical axis : absolute frequency
- Each point is connected with a straight line
Measurement of central tendency : Measurement of central tendency : to identify the center, or average, of a data set β used to represent the typical, or expected, value in the data set
Population mean / Sample mean / Arimethic mean : sum of all observation value divided by the number of observations
arimethic mean / weighted mean / Population mean : mean of all observed values in the population
geometric mean / harmonic mean /
β π
π ππππ’πππ‘πππ ππππ =
median / mode
π
Sample mean : mean of all sample values
β π
π π πππππ ππππ =
π
Weighted mean :
π =
π€ π = π€ π +π€ π +β―+ π€ π
Geometrical mean :
πΊ = π Γ π Γ β―Γ π = π Γ π Γ β―Γ π
Harmonic mean : used to find the average purchasing price
β
π
π»=
1
π
In which :
π = ππ’ππππ ππ π£πππ’ππ ππ π (π‘ππππ ππ ππ’ππβππ ππ )
Median : midpoint of a data set when the data is arranged from smallest to largest
Mode : Value that occurs ost frequently in a data set
- Unimodal : 1 value that occurs most frequently
- Bimodal : 2 values that occur most frequently
- Trimodal : 3 values that occur most frequently
β
Quartiles /
Quintiles /
Deciles /
Percentiles
Quartiles - distribution is divided into quarters
Quintiles - distribution is divided into fifth
Deciles - distribution is divided into tenth
Percentiles - distribution is divided into hundredth (percents)
Formula for the position of the observation at given percentiles
π¦
πΏ = (π + 1) Γ
100
In which :
π¦ = πππ ππ‘πππ ππ π‘βπ πππ πππ£ππ‘πππ
π = ππ’ππππ ππ πππ‘π πππππ‘π
Dispersion
Dispersion : variability around the central tendency
Range
Range : relative simple measure of variability
Range = Maximum value - Minimum value
Mean absolute deviation
Mean absolute deviation : average of the absolute vlues of the deviations of individual observations from the arithmetic mean
ππ΄π· =
Population variance
β
π βπ
π
Population variance : average of the squared deviations from the mean
π =
β
π βπ
π
β
π βπ
π
β
π βπ
πβ1
β
π βπ
πβ1
Population standard devation
π=
Sample variance
π =
Sample standard deviation
π =
Chebyshev's inequality
Chebyshev's inequality : For any set of observations, whether sample or population data, regardless of the shape of the distribution, % of observations that lie within k standard deviations
(k > 1) of the mean is at least :
πππ πππ£ππ‘πππ π‘βππ‘ πππ π€ππ‘βππ π π π‘ππππππ πππ£πππ‘πππ β₯ 1 β
Coefficient variation
Relatie dispersion : amount of variability in a distribution relative to a reference point or benchmark, commonly measured with the coefficient variation
πΆπ =
Sharpe ratio
π
π π‘ππππππ πππ£πππ‘πππ ππ π₯
=
ππ£πππππ π£πππ’π ππ π₯
π
Sharpe ratio : measures the excess return per unit of risk
πβππππ πππ‘ππ =
π βπ
π
in which :
π = ππππ‘πππππ πππ‘π’ππ
π = πππ π β ππππ πππ‘π’ππ
π = π π‘ππππππ πππ£πππ‘πππ ππ ππππ‘πππππ πππ‘π’πππ
Skewness
Distribution in symmetrical if it is shaped identically on both sides of its mean
Skewness : describe the extent to which a distribution is not symmetrical
- Positively skewness : many outliers in the upper region / right tail (said to be skewed right)
- Negatively skewness: many outliers in the lower regin / left tail (said to be skewed left)
Sample skewness :
ππππππ π πππ€πππ π π
=
1 β
Γ
π
π βπ
π
in which : s = sample standard deviation
Sample skewness > 0 β right skewed
Sample skewness < 0 β le skewed
|Sample skewness|β₯ 0
...
Multiplication rule of probability : used to determined th joint probability of 2 events
P(AB) = P(A and B) = P(A|B) Γ P(B) = P(B|A) Γ P(A)
2
...
Total probability rule : used to determine the unconditional probability of an event, given conditional probabilities
P(A) = P (A|B1) Γ P(B1) + P(A|B2) Γ P(B2) +
...
, Bn is a mutually exclusive and exhaustive set of outcomes
Dependent event /
Independent event
Independent events : the occurrence of one event has no influence on the occurrence of the others
...
Probability of one events is affected by the occurence of other events
Expected value
πΈ π =
Variance / Standard deviation
π π Γπ =π π
Γπ +π π
Γπ +β―+ π π
Γπ
Variance
π =π€ Γ π βπΈ π
+π€ Γ π βπΈ π
+ β―+π€ Γ π βπΈ π
Standard deviation
ππ‘ππππππ πππ£πππ‘πππ = π = ππππππππ
Covariance
Covariance : measure of how 2 assets move together
π Γ π΄ β π΄Μ Γ π΅ β π΅
πΆππ£ π΄, π΅ =
Correlation coefficient
πΆπππ π , π
Portfolio variance
Type
equation
here
...
Total number of ways that the labels can be assigned :
π!
π ! Γ π ! Γ β― Γ (π !)
Factorial : n! = n Γ (n - 1) Γ (n - 2) Γ (n - 3) Γ β¦ Γ 1
Combination : Choose r items (2 labels - chosen and not chosen) with no specific ordering
ππΆπ =
π!
π β π ! Γ π!
Permutation : Choose r items (2 labels - chosen and not chosen) with specific ordering
πππ =
π!
πβπ !
Concepts
Probability distribution
Probability function
Discrete random variable vs
...
Sum of all probabilities of all possible outcomes = 1
Probability function : probability that a random variable = a specific value
p(x) = P(X=x)
Discrete randome variable
Continuous random variable
- Limited number of possible outcomes
- A measurable and positive probabilities for each outcome
- Unlimited number of possible outcomes
- Only measurable probabilities for a range of outcome
...
5 Γ π Γ (π β 1)
Confident interval
Confident interval : range of values around an expected outcome within which we expect the actual outcome to be some specific % of the time
π β 1π β€ π β€ π + 1π β 68% ππππππππππ πππ‘πππ£ππ
π β 1
...
65π β 90% ππππππππππ πππ‘πππ£ππ
π β 1
...
96π β 95% ππππππππππ πππ‘πππ£ππ
π β 2
...
58π β 99% ππππππππππ πππ‘πππ£ππ
Standard normal distribution /
z-value
Standard normal distribution : has mean = 0 ; standard deviation = 1
z-value : number of standard deviations a given observationis from the population mean
...
β Safety ο¬rst ra o β more preferable
πππππ‘π¦ πΉπππ π‘ π ππ‘ππ =
πΈ π
βπ
π
In which:
π = ππππππ‘ πππ‘π’ππ
Lognormal distribution
πΏππππππππ πππ π‘ππππ’π‘πππ = π , π€βπππ π₯ ππ ππππππππ¦ πππ π‘ππππ’π‘ππ
Characteristic of lognormal distribution :
- Lognormal distribution is skewed to the right
- Lognormal distribution is bounded from below by zero
Lognormal distribution is often used to model asset prices (because it cannot be negative, and can take any positive value)
Discretely compounded rate of
Discretely compounded rate of return : normal compound rate of return
return /
As the compounding periods get very shorter β con nuously compounded rate of return
Continuously compounded rate of
π
πΈπππππ‘ππ£π ππππ’ππ πππ‘π = π β 1 β π = ππ 1 + π»ππ = ππ
return
π
Holding period return for T years :
π»ππ = π Γ β 1
Monte Carlo simulation
Monte Carlo simulation : uses randomly generated values for risk factors, based on their assumed distributions, to produce possible securities values
Limitation :
- Fairly complex
- Provide answer no better than the assumptions about the distributions of the risk factors and the pricing/valuation model used
- Statistic method β cannot provide insights like analy c methods
Historical simulation
Historical simulation : uses random selected past changes in risk factors to generate distribution of possible securities values
Limitation :
- Cannot consider effect of significant events in the past that do not occur in the sample period
Concepts
Description
Simple random sampling
Sampling and estimation
Simple random sampling : method of selecting a sample in such a way that each item / person in the population being studied has the same likelihood of being included in the sample
Sampling distribution
Sampling distribution : probability distribution of all possible sample statistics compounded from a set of equal equal-size samples that were randomly drawn from the sample population
Sampling error
Sampling error : difference between sample statistic (mean, variance, standard deviation of the sample) and its corresponding population parameter (mean, variance, standard deviation of
the population)
E
...
: Sampling error of mean = sample mean - population mean
Stratified random sampling
Stratified random sampling : use a classification system to separate the population β smaller groups, based on 1 or more dis nguishing characteris cs
Time-series data /
Cross-sectional data /
Longtitudinal data /
Panel data
Time-series data : consist observations taken over a period of time at specific and equally spaced time intervals (e
...
: monthly returns of Stock A from 2014 to 2017)
Cross-sectional data : sample of observation taken at a single point in time (e
...
: EPS of all Stock as at 31/12/2017)
Longtitudinal data : observations over time of multiple characteristics of same entity (e
...
: GDP, inflation, unemployment rate of Vietnam from 2014 to 2017)
Panel data : observation over time of same characteristic for multipled entities (e
...
: EPS of all companies for the recent 3 years)
Central limit theorem
Central limit theorem : for simple random samples size n (from a population with mean ΞΌ, finite variance π ), sampling distribution of the sample mean (π₯Μ ) approaches a normal
probability distribution with mean ΞΌ and variance =
as the sample size becomes larger
Sample size (n ) is sufficiently large (nβ₯ 30) β distribu on of sample means will be approximately normal
Mean of the population (ΞΌ) = mean of the distribution of all possible sample means
Standard error of the sample mean Standard error of the sample mean : standard deviation of the distribution of the sample means
π
πΜ =
π
in which :
π Μ = π π‘ππππππ πππππ ππ π‘βπ π πππππ ππππ
π = π π‘ππππππ πππ£πππ‘πππ ππ π‘βπ ππππ’πππ‘πππ
π = π πππππ π ππ§π
In case the standard deviation of the population is unknown, could use the standard deviaton of the sample
π
π Μ =
π
in which :
π Μ = π π‘ππππππ πππππ ππ π‘βπ π πππππ ππππ
π = π π‘ππππππ πππ£πππ‘πππ ππ π‘βπ π πππππ
π = π πππππ π ππ§π
Desirable properties of an
estimator
Desirable properties of an estimator :
- Unbiasedness : sign of estimation error is random
- Efficiency : lower sampling erro
Title: CFA Level 1 - Quantitative Methods
Description: I create this summary of knowledge related to CFA level 1 for my 2017 December exam. I got into the top 10% with this. Hope this can help you. Please note that this does not guarantee for your pass, which requires dedication, hardwork and consistency. In case having trouble with any part, please refer to CFA notebook/Schwesser.
Description: I create this summary of knowledge related to CFA level 1 for my 2017 December exam. I got into the top 10% with this. Hope this can help you. Please note that this does not guarantee for your pass, which requires dedication, hardwork and consistency. In case having trouble with any part, please refer to CFA notebook/Schwesser.