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RUHR-UNIVERSITÄT BOCHUM
Faculty of Management and Economics
Seminar paper
for the Seminar in Development Economics
about the topic
«Food crisis revisited under Covid 19 and Russian-Ukraine war:
Agro-Commodities-Prices – Demand and Supply Determinants, FAOglobal Index Trend Analysis and Consequences in Developing Countries»

Summer term 2023
Submitted to
Dr
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Sc
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06
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II
List of Acronyms
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1
Supply and demand-side determinants
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4
The impact of COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war in developing countries
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Conclusion
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IV

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List of Figures
Figure 1: FFPI in 1990-2022
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List of Acronyms
FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization

FFPI

FAO Food Price Index

UNDP

United Nations Development Programme

UNEP

United Nations Environment Programme

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Introduction
The global agri-food market has been in a shock state since the beginning of Covid-19 and the
Russian-Ukraine war
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Russia and
Ukraine are leading exporters on the world market of agricultural products
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On the one hand, there is an excess of statistical information about the situation of the trade relations between Russia and Ukraine on the
global agri-food market, during the recent years
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The aim of the paper is to conduct the research of the worldwide agro-food system in the conditions of Covid-19 and the arisen political conflict between Russia and Ukraine
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The urgency of the research is dictated by the analysis of the situation
of the global food security system
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Recent events have
accelerated the rise in food prices, while reinforcing existing risks
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In the course of the study, media sources, author's works on the topic of research and the analysis of scientific research already conducted by other scientists were used, and the existing
approaches were supplemented with a toolkit of scenario planning
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According to FAO, the overall global prices of food supplies are expected to

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increase in the years 2022-2023 between 8% and 22%, before the conflict is contained or alternative sources are found
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From the supply-side factors, these include the availability of arable land, the degree of technical and biological progress in agriculture, the low elasticity of supply of agricultural raw materials, the cost of resources, the cost of the font of energy utilized and the weather conditions
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It often happens during political conflicts and escalations, considered one of the most unpredictable causes of high volatility of prices of agricultural commodities and all those products that rely on them as raw materials
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2 This state of unavailability of arable land has also resulted from
the on-going war, which caused the destruction of numerous irrigation systems, agricultural
infrastructures, natural resources and numerous farming fields, whose restoration will require
long-term projects
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Transportation expenses are a huge
component of the price of food imports and are especially high in the case of cross-border
transports, but during the war they increased even further because of higher insurance costs in
the Black Sea area and the non-operational status of many of its ports, which accounted for
about 90% of Ukrainian grain trade flows
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The
situation was different for goods that are usually imported or exported: a negative spiral effect
on supply chains, due to the closure of borders of many countries, transportation restrictions
and reduced activities in major sectors, was put into effect and international trade for some time
interrupted
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15
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1990-2022
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D
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, and Wheeler C
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12
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M
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, (2014), p
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supply pressures
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From the demand-side factors, the actual demand can be influenced for different reasons going
from the change in food habits at the global level, as can be mentioned the increased consumption in protein derived from animals due to increased incomes in developing countries and economic development, and variation in global demographic trends, starting from the increased
demand in food in Asia, especially China and India
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At the current moment, world population is
increasing by 0
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5 The demand for agro-commodities increases as the world's
population grows

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