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Title: Development Economics: Poverty Traps [Warwick University - EC340]
Description: Topics in Applied Economics A: Comprehensive notes on Development Economics. [Warwick University - EC340]
Description: Topics in Applied Economics A: Comprehensive notes on Development Economics. [Warwick University - EC340]
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There is a TRADE-OFF between conspicuous consumption and education
Poor people spend a higher proportion of income on conspicuous consumption
The alternative is that accumulating human capital over time means less spent on cc (x)
Education provides a signal
Simple case:
b = investment in education from parent for next generation
y= income of parent
The parents’ investment in the education of their children will translate to increased income of their children when they
become adults
...
This is the shape it has under the assumption of homothetic preferences and a standard production function (increasing
and concave - positive marginal products but diminishing)
...
In the first lecture, we gave ideas for the mechanisms which generate poverty traps - they basically say:
if the parents are poor they cannot invest much into the education of their children, so their children will become poor
and poverty will persist - a poverty trap
...
So in order for us to have a poverty trap we need a figure that looks like this:
That the phi function crosses the 45 degree line more than once
...
When the phi function lies above the 45 degree line income is growing over time, and if it is below income is shrinking
over time
...
Everyone above P will converge to the high income steady state
...
We cannot just combine standard assumption to generate a poverty trap - we need this phi function to be, at some
range convex, not just continuously concave
...
What the literature did about this:
Most of the literature kept the assumption about preferences (straight line), and played with the technology
...
With Dasgupta-Ray (1986) it is a story about nutrition, and in their mechanism, poor people do not have enough money
to buy enough food
...
And if they cannot work they cannot get
enough money to buy food, which generates a poverty trap
...
We need to tell a story about the exact relationship between food consumption
and the ability to supply labour, and it cannot be this standard, decreasing concave relationship
...
The production function in Dasgupta-Ray (1986) is how consumption of food translates to the ability to provide labour
...
The production function describes how food consumption translates into production
...
The advantage of looking at the behaviour of the poor rather than technology, is that, empirically, it seems the right
approach
...
At first, the assumption of linearity seems realistic, (going to university is not an increasing concave function) because
it is important to graduate from university
...
This is indivisible
...
Or a 1
year course
...
If you think of an envelope of all these options, there is no reason to think that technology would be
anything other than a standard concave function
...
When we look at the behaviour of the poor, one thing we see that is very clear: they save at a lower rate
...
Not many people have looked at this: Moav is author of 3 of the papers
...
/Dynan et al (2004) find that savings as a proportion of income increases with wealth, so assumption of homothetic
preferences is unrealistic - this justifies looking at the behaviour of the poor
In Moav (2002) we simply assume that this is the shape of the saving function (or function of investment in off-spring)
...
Also, replace homothetic preferences with the assumption that the investment function in the education of the
children is increasing and convex
...
(11:10)
/This type of behaviour cannot simply be justified by saying that poor live in ‘subsistence’ and their lack of wealth is selfperpetuating, generating a poverty trap in this way
...
g, Obamza family) suggests that the poor can afford to invest in the education of their children, but do
not
...
Poor people in poor countries have more children than rich people in rich countries
...
So poor people live at subsistence, they don’t save, and only above some
threshold of income people start allocating their income to the education of their children
...
The Obamza family do not send their children to school, even though the cost if $2
...
At the
same time, they spend $22 a month on alcohol and phones
...
We need a better explanation than simply saying ‘subsistence’
...
Within countries, there is a correlation between education and fertility, and education and income
...
(13:35)
In this paper there is a model in which poor people choose to have more children because they ? education and they
have a comparative disadvantage in educating their children because they choose a larger number of lower education
children and despite assuming homothetic preferences, this quality-quantity trade-off generates an investment function
which looks like this and a poverty trap
...
e
...
A key assumption according to Banerjee & Mullainathan (2007) is that there is a
difference between poor and wealthy, in that the fraction of income allocated to temptation goods is decreasing with
income
...
This is true if temptation is just for donuts
...
Temptation is not just for donuts - Ferrari/ jet/ etc
...
Could go the other way: poor people are not even tempted to spend money on a donut because they’re so poor they
realise that they have to cut on healthier and more important stuff
...
So by assumption you have this type of line:
But Banerjee & Mullainathan's (2007) story continues
...
Here is the key story they tell: Today I know that tomorrow I will suffer from temptation
...
From the point of view of myself today,
temptation in the future is a tax on my income
...
My savings in the future will be taxed by temptation, which reduces the savings rate
...
No, Banerjee & Mullainathan's (2007) assumption that poor individuals will reduce their savings today because they
know they will be tempted tomorrow could be wrong:
If individuals know they will spend more next period, they will save more this period, to compensate
...
You may say the opposite: I will save more so that I have some income left after taxation
...
e
...
So we have to assume additionally that the substitution effect is greater than the income effect
...
Result: we have savings rate increasing with income and persistence of poverty
...
So same basic figures that generate a dynamical system
...
Combined, we have a linear phi function
...
This gives us endless growth dynamics and all dynasties will converge to a globally stable steady state
...
This reduces their savings
...
This comes
at the expense of other consumption and savings
...
Model shows that regardless of income, everyone is allocating the same fraction of income to conspicuous
consumption
...
BUT now let’s add the crucial mechanism to the story: that when education increases and with education income also
increases; people reduce the fraction of income allocated to conspicuous consumption
Now assume that as income increases (as a result of more human capital), the fraction of income spend in conspicuous
consumption is shrinking
...
In this
example, there is this threshold below which individuals converge to the low income steady state, and above which
they enjoy constant growth of income
...
What matters is that we have a threshold and below this people converge to a poverty trap, and above they converge
to a high income or endless growing steady state
...
In terms of what you need to know for the exam - DO NOT NEED THE DETAILS OF THIS PAPER - You need to
understand ideas - UNLIKE GALOR-ZEIRA MODEL - which we do have to understand the details
Title: Development Economics: Poverty Traps [Warwick University - EC340]
Description: Topics in Applied Economics A: Comprehensive notes on Development Economics. [Warwick University - EC340]
Description: Topics in Applied Economics A: Comprehensive notes on Development Economics. [Warwick University - EC340]