Search for notes by fellow students, in your own course and all over the country.
Browse our notes for titles which look like what you need, you can preview any of the notes via a sample of the contents. After you're happy these are the notes you're after simply pop them into your shopping cart.
Document Preview
Extracts from the notes are below, to see the PDF you'll receive please use the links above
UNIT III
Chapter 2
Risk Management
Risk Management
Introduction
‘the chance of exposure to the adverse
consequences of future events’ PRINCE2
‘an uncertain event or condition that, if it
occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a
project’s objectives’ PM-BOK
• Risks relate to possible future problems,
not current ones
• They involve a possible cause and its
effect(s) e
...
developer leaves > task delayed
Risk Management
Categories of risk
Risk Management
Risk Management Approaches
• Reactive:
– Reactive approaches take no action until an unfavourable
event occurs
...
• Proactive:
– The proactive approaches try to anticipate the possible risks
that the project is susceptible to
...
Risk Management
A framework for dealing with risk
The planning for risk includes these steps:
• Risk identification – what risks might there
be?
• Risk analysis and prioritization – which are
the most serious risks?
• Risk planning – what are we going to do
about them?
• Risk monitoring – what is the current state
of the risk?
Risk Management
Risk identification
Approaches to identifying risks include:
• Use of checklists – usually based on the
experience of past projects
• Brainstorming – getting knowledgeable
stakeholders together to pool concerns
• Causal mapping – identifying possible chains
of cause and effect
Risk Management
Boehm’s top 10 development risks
1
...
Risk
Risk reduction techniques
Personnel shortfalls
Staffing with top talent; job matching; teambuilding;
training and career development; early scheduling
of key personnel
Unrealistic time and
cost estimates
Multiple estimation techniques; design to cost;
incremental development; recording and analysis
of past projects; standardization of methods
Developing the wrong
software functions
4
...
Risk Management
Improved software evaluation; formal specification
methods; user surveys; prototyping; early user
manuals
Prototyping; task analysis; user involvement
5
...
7
...
9
...
Real time performance
problems
Simulation, prototyping, tuning
10
...
g
...
5
millions of damage
Probability 0
...
00 (absolutely
certain) e
...
0
...
5m x 0
...
Risk Management
Probability impact matrix
• Risk that appear within this zone have a
degree of seriousness that calls for particular
attention
...
g
...
g
...
5%
RRL = (1% of £200k)-(0
...
00 therefore worth doing
Risk Management
Evaluating Risk to Schedule
Risk Management
Risk Management
Apply : : Using PERT to evaluate the
effects of uncertainty
Three estimates are produced for each activity
• Most likely time (m)
• Optimistic time (a) – task to undertake in
normal circumstances
• Pessimistic (b) -worst possible time
• ‘expected time’ te Or Mean = (a + 4m +b) / 6
• ‘activity standard deviation’ S or Variation =
(b-a)/6
Risk Management
A chain of activities
Question :
1
...
66 + 10
...
66
i
...
48
...
What would be the standard
deviation for A + B+ C?
Answer:
square root of (12 + 12 + 32)
i
...
Risk Management
3
...
Calculate Expected Duration
te (a + 4m +b) / 6
Risk Management
2
...
• Is a quantitative risk analysis technique
which is used to identify the risk level of
completing the project
...
• A class of general analysis techniques:
– Valuable to solve any problem that is
complex, nonlinear, or involves more than
just a couple of uncertain parameters
...
• Gives more realistic results as compared to
manual approaches
...
Assess the range for the variables being
considered
...
Determine the probability distribution of each
variable
...
For each variable, select a random value based on
the probability distribution
...
Run a deterministic analysis or one pass through
the model
...
Repeat steps 3 and 4 many times to obtain the
probability distribution of the model’s results
...
Risk Management
Risk Management
n- activities
Risk Management
CRITICAL CHAIN CONCEPTS
Risk Management
Traditional planning approach
Risk Management
Critical chain approach
One problem with estimates of task duration:
• Estimators add a safety zone to estimate to
take account of possible difficulties
• Developers work to the estimate + safety
zone, so time is lost
• No advantage is taken of opportunities where
tasks can finish early – and provide a buffer
for later activities
Risk Management
One answer to this:
1
...
Most likely duration: 50% chance of
meeting this
2
...
Schedule all activities using most likely
values and starting all activities on latest
start dates
Risk Management
Most likely and comfort zone estimates
Risk Management
Executing the critical chain-based plan
• No chain of tasks is started earlier than
scheduled, but once it has started is finished
as soon as possible
• This means the activity following the current
one starts as soon as the current one is
completed, even if this is early – the relay
race principle
Risk Management
Buffers are divided into three zones:
• Green: the first 33%
...
Plan is formulated
• Red : last 33%
...
Risk Management