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Chapter 4
(Preliminary draft)

Unlocking the Future Potential for Kenya:
The Vision 2030

Njuguna Ndung’u, Kamau Thugge and
Owino Otieno

Chapter 4: Unlocking the Future Potential for Kenya – The Vision 2030
Kamau Thugge, Njuguna Ndung’u, R
...
The country has not achieved a long and
prolonged growth spell
...
By the 1990s the economy was contracting and GDP per capita was declining, a situation
that prevailed up to the year 2002
...
8 percent in 1990 to more than 56 percent at the end of 2002, with some
pockets of the country having much higher poverty levels
...
For instance, life expectancy declined from 57 years in
1986 to 47 years in 2000
...

This is the background against which Kenya’s Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and
Employment Creation (ERS) was formulated in 2003
...
The Kenyan economy is estimated to have grown by about 7 percent in 2007, an
impressive performance compared with the 0
...
It was the first time that a policy
design was implemented and desired results achieved
...
The motivation for the Vision is to have a development strategy that succeeds the ERS and
answers to the aspirations for a prosperous society by transforming Kenya into a newlyindustrialising, middle income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens in a clean and
secure environment by the year 2030
...
Kenya
seems to emulate those countries like South Korea and Malaysia that created visions for development
and galvanised the populace around it with much success
...
Kenya Vision 2030 is anchored on
three key pillars: Economic; Social; and Political Governance
...

This growth target will be achieved through implementation of several flagship projects in 6 priority
sectors namely Tourism, Agriculture, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Manufacturing, Business Process
1

Out sourcing (BPO) and Financial Services
...
It, therefore, presents
comprehensive social interventions aimed at improving the quality of life
...

Highlights of the three pillars together with supporting transversal reforms are presented in this
chapter followed by an assessment of their suitability, feasibility and completeness
...


1
...
They argue that cross-country endogenous growth literature has been useful in
identifying uniformities across countries and over time
...
This lack of robustness is partly attributable to
the incorrect assumption that growth process differs across countries and over time
...
The current chapter can be looked at as an important extension where there is a deliberate
policy framework that addresses all these factors to become a national vision
...
1 Overview
The Kenyan economy, which registered robust growth during the first decade of independence,
performed below its potential since the 1980s
...
GDP growth
peaked at 8
...
In the 1980s
the growth momentum started dissipating and by the 1990s GDP growth was so low that GDP per
capita was declining, a situation that prevailed up to the year 2002 (Figure 1)
...
07 percent per year in the 1980s but the performance deteriorated further to a growth
rate of merely 1
...
Kenya’s per capita income which was growing at a peak of
4
...
79 percent in the 1990s
...

The industrial sector, which was growing at an average of 10
...
95 percent per annum in the 1980s and the trend worsened to an average annual
growth of 1
...
The single largest sector of the economy, agriculture, adopted
the same trend, not to mention services being one of the best performing sectors over the years
...
3 percent in the 1970s but this
performance declined to merely 0
...
26 percent per annum compared to 7
...

Figure 2: Performance of key growth supporting sectors

Source: Computed from Data in Economic Surveys

3

While the economic performance was dominated by low GDP growth, increasing unemployment and
a significant decline in productivity, poverty incidence also worsened and the proportion of people
living in poverty estimated to have increased from about 48
...
Furthermore, the social
indicators worsened markedly between the mid 1980s and the year 2002
...
As shown in figure 3, life expectancy
had consistently improved in Kenya until the mid 1980s after which it sharply declined
...

Figure 3: Life Expectancy and HIV/AIDS cases

Source: UNAIDS/WHO Epidemiological Fact sheet and UNICEF Earth Trends Data Tables
...
The
different categories of mortality rate had declined progressively since the 1960s until the mid to late
1980s when the trend reversed
...

Figure 4: Under-5 mortality rate and MDG target

Source: WHO Country Fact Sheet 2006

4

1
...
The ERS aimed at restoration of high
economic growth as a precursor to the achievement of other developmental objectives
...
To address the economic growth objective, the programme envisaged a
strengthening of the macroeconomic framework, a more responsible fiscal stance, increasing the role
of private sector in economic development and improvement in physical infrastructure
...

To enhance governance, the program proposed extensive reform of the judiciary, strengthening the
rule of law and security, and implementing reforms in public administration systems that are critical
to improving government transparency and accountability
...
6
percent in 2002 to 2
...
By 2007, which marked the end of implementation of the
ERS, the Kenyan economy was on a rapid growth trajectory, growing by 7
...
6 per cent in 2002
...
GDP was projected to
grow by an average of 4
...
4 percent per annum during the period
...
These include government revenue collection and hence expenditure
...


To sustain the recovery and move into a higher growth and development path, the Kenya
Government has formulated a new long-term development blueprint for the country - Kenya Vision
2030
...
The Vision, therefore, not only aims at meeting the Millenium
Development Goals (MDGs) but also making the country globally competitive
...
Kenya Vision 2030 is
anchored on three key pillars: Economic, Social and Political Governance
...
It is hoped that the identified gaps
can be adequately addressed by the policies espoused in this book
...
Vision 2030
Kenya’s long term vision as enshrined in Vision 2030 document is to transform the country from its
current status into a newly industrialising middle income country providing a high quality of life to
all its citizens by the year 2030
...
The vision is anchored on three
pillars namely Economic, Social and Political pillars
...

Each pillar has defined objectives to be achieved by 2030, strategies and projects to be implemented
in the first 5 year phase
...

Box 1: The Three Vision 2030 Pillars

Ov erarching vision
A globally competitive and prosperous nation
with a high quality of life by 2030

Strategy

Economic
T maintain a
o
sustained economic
growth of 10% p
...

ov er the next 25 years

Social
A just and cohesive
society enjoying
equitable social
dev elopment in a
clean and secure
env ironment

Political
An issue-based,
people-centered,
result-oriented, and
accountable
democratic political
sy stem

Plans and
implementation

Co-developed with external support
building skills of GoK core team

Developed independently by GoK core team
based on similar methodology to economic
pillar

The Government initiated and launched development of Vision 2030 in October 2006 with the
National Economic and Social Council (NESC) as the supervisory authority and the Ministry of
6

Planning and National Development in charge of coordinating the technical and financial aspects of
the process
...
At the national level the vision
research team held interviews with these key stakeholders and in addition held priority sector based
problem solving workshops
...
The consultations with investors helped the
teams to understand private sector perspectives on barriers to investment and how to improve the
business climate in Kenya
...

The Vision development process was driven by a public and private sector collaborative structure
involving a National Vision Steering Committee, Operational Committee, Core Team, Sector Teams
and a team of International Consultants
...

Box 2: Vision 2030 development structure
Role

Members
1
...
E
...
Relevant minis ters
and NESC members
3
...
Permanent
Sec retaries from
key minis tries
2
...
Experts from key Kenyan Ins titutions (CBS,
CBK, relevant minis tries )
2
...
Vis ion 2030 Programme Direc tor
2
...
Full time team of Cons ultants
4
...
Minis try Vis ion teams ,
2
...
1 The Economic Pillar
Development of the economic pillar, undertaken with the support of external consultants, began with
diagnostic of all sectors of the economy and benchmarking of the country’s performance against its
peers of the 1960s which are currently more developed
...
This formed the basis for the formulation of the economic pillar’s long term
objective and medium term goals
...
The crafters of the vision appreciated that this is a daunting task as,
historically, less than five countries have ever achieved such a feat
...
In most of these cases the robust growth was led by discovery of natural
resources rather than economic growth strategy
...

The role of natural resource exploitation in economic performance can be vindicated by the current
growth trends in countries like Angola, which was the second fastest growing economy in Africa
after Equatorial Guinea between 2001 and 2007
...
2 percent 1
...
4

Oman
Bots wana

13
...
0
9
...
g
...
g
...
5

Si ngapore
Hong Kong
Korea

9
...
9

1964-1989
1960-1985
1965-1990
1965-1990

T hai l and

8
...
9

1964-1989

M ays i a
al

7
...
g
...
The improved performance of the tourism sector was, for instance, due to
increased bed occupancy and not so much due to new investments in the sector
...
These include
increasing savings and investment to more than 30 percent of GDP, improving business
environment, road infrastructure improvement, reducing the energy and telecommunications costs
which at present are higher than the benchmark countries, and reducing the size of the informal
sector in the economy
...

1

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2008

8

In addition, sector focus would be critical if the country is to meet the ambitious growth aspirations
...
This
followed preliminary diagnostics combined with a collaborative approach to determine the sectors
with the greatest potential to drive growth in the country
...
The six priority sectors were Tourism, Agriculture, Wholesale and
Retail Trade, Manufacturing, Business Process Out sourcing (BPO) and Financial Services
...

Box 3: The Six Priority Sectors
Current size of GDP

• Sizeable part of the economy (e
...
, 30% of GDP and

• Plays a critical enabling role in the economy
• Has experienced significant growth over past few years

50% of employment – formal and informal)

• Extremely fragmented and informal (e
...
, 97% of
•
•

+

• One of Kenya’s major

(e
...
, 50%+ p
...
growth of NSE)

employment, 70% of value is informal)
Very inefficient supply chain
Significant opportunity to formalise the sector

• Still ample room for further development across all areas
– Capital markets, Banking, Informal finance, and
International capital

•

700

•

6

3
600

1

Financial
services

Wholesale
and retail

Tourism

500

5

Attractiveness

2
BPO

400

Agriculture

• Stagnant at 10% of

4

GDP over past 30
years

Manufacturing

Petroleum*

300

• Sector currently

• Small and nascent industry
•
Bio-fuels*

200

•
Mining*

100

•

today (e
...
, <1 000 seats total)
Overall, cost competitive relative
to other attractive destinations
However, key areas for
improvement, e
...
, telecom/
energy cost and reliability,
training)
Significant niche opportunity for
Kenya

• Pillar of the Kenyan economy (25% of

•

GDP)

• Productivity significantly lower (e
...
,
•
•

2-3 x lower) than international
benchmarks
Additional opportunities to unlock
potential of Kenyan land
Strong need for institutional reform

•

0
0

-

50

100

economic pillars,
enjoying significant
growth (13% p
...
)
over past few years
Largest contributor to
foreign exchange
earnings (US$1 bn+)
However, far
underdeveloped
compared to other
top tourist
destinations (e
...
,
number of tourists,
yield, diversity of
experience, etc)

150

200

250

uncompetitive, e
...
,
expensive energy,
heavy regulation,
disjointed taxation
Sizeable
opportunity, in
particular in
domestic and
regional markets
Potential to develop
global niches (e
...
,
agro-processed
goods)

300

+

Feasibility

* Although not a priority in the short term, these and other non-prioritised (sub)-sectors remain important for the Kenyan economy

Tourism
Visions, goals and strategies were developed for each of the six priority economic sectors
...
This sector is one of the major growth and
employment drivers in the Kenyan economy
...
It remains one of the largest contributors to
foreign exchange earnings
...

The goals in the sector are to (i) quadruple GDP contribution to KSh 200 billion by the year 2012,
(ii) Raise international visitors from 1
...


9

visitor from Ksh 40,000
...
00 by 2012, and
(iv) Raise bed capacity from 40,000 to 65,000
...
These would entail aggressively growing coast
segment through resort cities initiative; Migrating premium safari parks upscale and extending
facilities at other under-utilised parks; Nurturing nascent, high value products such as cultural, ecoand water-based tourism (Niche Products); and Revamping Business visitor offering by attracting
high-end international hotel chains and investing in conference facilities
...

• Growing nascent, high-end niche products such as eco-tourism, water-based and cultural
tourism
...

Agriculture
In the Agriculture sector vision 2030 document envisages a transformation from the current practices
to a more commercially oriented agriculture
...
However, productivity in the sector is
significantly lower (2-3 times) than international benchmark countries
...

The sector vision, therefore, is “Innovative, commercially oriented and modern farm and
livestock sector”
...
This would involve (i)
achieving benchmark yields in key crops, (ii) Increased smallholder specialisation with only 2 to 3
crops per plot, (iii) Utilising 1 million hectares of idle lands, and (iv) Cultivating up to 1
...

Five strategic thrusts were recommended to guide the achievement of these goals
...
The second is increased
productivity of crops and livestock while the third strategy is to transform land use structure
through better utilisation of High and Medium Potential Lands
...
The final one is to increase access to
markets particularly to small holders through establishment of aggregators using the strategies spelt
out in the wholesale and retail trade sector
...

The identified flagship projects in agriculture include:
• Preparing and ensuring passage of consolidated agricultural reform legislation;
• Developing and implementing a 3-tiered fertilizer cost reduction programme involving
purchasing and supply chain improvements (tier 1), blending (tier 2) and manufacturing (tier
3);
• Planning and implementing 4-5 Disease Free Zones and livestock processing facilities;
• Creating publicly accessible land registry;
• Developing agriculture land use master plan (e
...
, crop specialisation plan); and
• Establishing Tana River Basin development scheme
...
It is extremely
fragmented and highly informal as 97 percent of its employment and 70 percent of value is informal
...
The
vision of Wholesale and Retail Trade sector is, therefore, to “Move towards a formal sector that is
efficient, multi-tiered, diversified in product range, and innovative”
...

Its strategies were clustered into three strategic thrusts namely Supply chain, Semi-formal retail and
formal retail
...
In the formal retail,
the strategy is to “Attract and develop large formal retails through Joint and standalone domestic and
foreign ventures”
...
These
are:
• Build 'tier 1' retail markets starting with pilot in Athi River to serve Nairobi area
...

• Develop Free Trade Port in Mombasa for the Regional market
...
However, there
exists opportunity in the domestic and regional markets and there is potential to develop global
niches especially in agro-processed goods
...
The medium term goal is to stimulate additional Ksh 30 billion
increase in GDP by (i) Reducing imports in key local industries by 25 percent (ii) Growing market
share in regional market from 7 percent to 15 percent and (ii) Attracting at least 10 large strategic
investors in key agro-processing industries
...
The strategy in local production is to defend and
restructure key industries that have local raw material availability, but no competitive edge such as
sugar and paper
...
g
...
This can be
done through agro-processing
...

• Developing concept, piloting and creating at least 5 Small and Medium Enterprise (SME)
Industrial Parks
...
It is currently a
small and nascent industry with less than one thousand seats in total
...
However, there
are key related areas requiring improvement
...

The vision for the sector is to be “The top BPO destination in Africa”
...
This
could be achieved by (i) Attracting at least 5 major leading IT suppliers (ii) Attracting at least 10
large multinational corporation captives and/or global BPO players, and (iii) Targeting at least 5
large local players to develop as local champions through standalone operations or joint ventures
...
These are International IT supplier base in
which the strategy is to attract top international suppliers for scale and credibility; the multinational
corporation captives and foreign BPOs where the strategy is to attract leading brands to establish at
least 300 seat operations; Local champions where the strategy is to develop local champions
through standalone operations and joint ventures; and Integrated value proposition which involves
use of BPO park to concentrate marketing, training, incentives and telecom infrastructure
...

Financial Services
The sixth priority sector, Financial Services, plays a critical enabling role in the economy and is
expected to enable transformation of the economy through mobilisation of required savings
...
There is till, however, ample room for further
development of all the segments of the sector including Capital markets, Banking, Informal finance,
and International capital
...
It is the role of this sector to mobilise adequate savings to finance the envisaged increase in
investments
...

The medium term goal is, therefore, to “Raise savings and investment rates from 17 percent to 30
percent of GDP through (i) Increasing bank deposits from 44% to 80% of GDP and reducing the cost
of capital, (ii) Reducing the share of population without access to finance from 85 percent to 70
percent, (iii) Raising stock market capitalization from 50 percent to 90 percent of GDP, and (iv)
Raising 5 percent of GDP for investment from remittances and 5 percent of GDP from other
external sources such as FDI and sovereign bond
...
6 million adults in contributory pension schemes,
increasing deposits in the banking sector by attracting additional 2 million customers, extending
informal finance to additional 2 million Kenyans, and driving efficiency gains in the banking sector
...
For banking the strategy is
to facilitate transformation to larger, stronger banks, and extend credit referencing while for informal
finance the strategy is to formalize informal finance, for example by passing the SACCO bill, and
extend access to microfinance
...
The
final strategy is to tap international sources of capital
...

Other financial sector initiatives planned for 2008 to 2012 include Reform of the commercial justice
system to expedite the settlement of commercial disputes; Improving the registration of movable and
immovable assets as collateral in order to increase their tangibility; Encouraging more use of ICT in
the financial sector; Effecting legal reforms to encourage use of non-conventional collateral (e
...

warehousing and social capital) and strengthening the legal framework for effective functioning of
credit reference bureaux; Strengthening actions to ensure that banks provide transparent and
understandable information on charges made to clients; Removing barriers to effective competition
in the system and encourage entrance and exit; and expediting the Companies Registry reforms to
expand them to the districts
...

Box 4: Summary of flagship projects per Sector
Sector
Tourism

Agriculture

Flagship Projects
1
...
Resort cities: Build resort cities in key areas (eg, coast, national parks)
1
...
Premium parks: Restrict numbers and raise quality in key parks
1
...
Under-utilised parks: Upgrade and extend capacity in under-utilized parks
1
...
Niche products: High end play at 4 key sites in Western circuit and 1,000 home stay sites

2
...
Reform: Prepare and ensure passage of consolidated agricultural reform legislation
2
...
Fertilizer cost reduction: Develop and begin implementation of 3-tiered fertilizer cost reduction
programme– purchasing and supply chain improvements; blending; manufacturing
2
...
Disease Free Zones: Plan and implement 4-5 zones and livestock processing facilities
2
...
Land registry: Create publicly accessible land registry
2
...
Land use master plan: Develop agriculture land use master plan (e
...
, crop specialisation plan)
2
...
ASAL development: Develop Tana River Basin irrigation scheme

W holesale and
Retail Trade

3
...
PBGs and hubs: Develop producer business groups (PBGs) and formal wholesale hubs
3
...
Tier 1 retail markets: Create Tier 1 retail mkts to semi-formalize informal players and help them grow
3
...
Free Trade Port: “Bring Dubai to Kenya” by creating a free trade port to serve the regional market

Manufacturing

4
...
SECs: Develop concept, pilot, and launch Special Economic Clusters (e
...
, focus on industries,
target players, incentive packages, etc)
4
...
SME parks: Develop concept, pilot, and create Small & Medium Enterprise (SME) industrial parks

BPO

Financial
Services

5
...
BPO park: Design and develop BPO parks that have world class infrastructure developed by top
international IT suppliers, offers competitive incentive packages to locate in park, provides a one stop
shop for administration and talent and serves as a ‘showcase’ park to attract top foreign companies

6
...
Strengthening banks: Facilitate transformation towards larger scale and more efficient banks
6
...
Pension reform: Develop and execute comprehensive model for pension reform
6
...
Remittances: Pursue comprehensive remittances strategy
6
...
Sovereign bond: Formulate policy for issueing sovereign benchmark bonds

These projects were carefully crafted to ensure that they are evenly distributed nationally such that
parts of the country that are presently remote and under developed could be open up
...
The reforms would cover the public sector, infrastructure
development, land reforms and human resource development
...

On infrastructure, successful implementation of the vision would need building key roads to support
the proposed resort cities, revitalized tourist circuits and wholesale hubs
...
There is also need to support development of transportation,
construction and telecom initiatives around flagship projects
...

In the area of human resources development, the Government will develop or incentivise
development of key training programs to support quantity and quality of talent needed in key sectors
such as training around specific processes in BPO
...
Land reforms are also
recommended, including development of new land laws and land use master plan using land registry
to identify and zone certain areas for specific types of activity
...


15

2
...
It, therefore, presents comprehensive social interventions
aimed at improving the quality of life of all Kenyans and Kenyan residents
...
These include education, health, water
and sanitation, environment, housing and urbanisation, and gender, youth and vulnerable groups
...

The diagnostics covered access to education, quality, equity, relevance, institutional management
and capacity development
...
Regarding access the key
challenges identified include low literacy levels in some parts of the country, poor net and gross
enrolment in pastoralist areas, low transition rates and fairly high dropout rate at basic education
levels
...
For example,
of the roughly 700,000 students that complete primary education less than 400,000 can get access to
secondary school education in both private and public schools
...
6 percent gets access to the University education
...
After freezing recruitment
of teachers for some time coupled with a surge in the number of pupils following the launch of free
primary education, the pupil teacher ratio increased far beyond the recommended levels
...
Absorption was found to be an issue that also relates to the relevance of
the curriculum
...
These and other issues were therefore addressed in the sector vision
...
The strategies for achieving this vision were categorised into seven
strategic thrusts
...

The medium term goal is an “Overall reduction of illiteracy and enhancement of wealth creation;
focusing on access, transition, quality and relevance of education, training and research”
...
8 million to 3
...
6 percent in 2006 to 20 percent
...

Box 5: Strategies for Early Childhood, Primary, Secondary and Special Education

ECDE

Primary
Education

Secondary

Special
Education

•Revise pre-service primary teacher training curriculum to prepare teachers on appropriate methodology
for teaching ECDE and lower primary;
•Build community capacities for the development and equipment of ECDE centers in collaboration with
other partners;
•Work with other partners in education, particularly the local authorities, to improve salaries and terms of
service for ECDE teachers; and
•Implement the ECDE policy framework within broad based partnership with all stakeholders
...
g
...

•Integrate secondary education as part of basic education;
•Offer free tuition, and encourage parents and communities to provide infrastructure and operational costs;
•Develop more day schools to reduce the cost to parents;
•Support by the Government for private providers of secondary education (PPPs);
•Introduce ODL and other alternative delivery mechanisms such as e-learning;
•Establish two centers of excellence at district levels to serve as role models and increase the number of
national schools;
•Implement diverse demand side financing strategies to cushion the poor students, including enhanced
bursaries, voucher scheme targeting students and special grants; and
•Mainstream STI in the curriculum
...


In addition to the above strategies the vision 2030 also recommends strategies for increasing adult
literacy level
...

On Technical, Industrial, Vocational and Entrepreneurship Training the strategies include
undertaking labour market skills survey and training needs assessment in collaboration with the
industry and service sector; In-service training and training for lecturers in technical education in line
with skills oriented curriculum; Developing a legal framework for a tripartite delivery mechanism in
tertiary education and PPPs; Providing an alternative path for accessing higher education and
training up to degree level; Mobilizing resources to rehabilitate TIVET institutions; and Government
support for private providers and industry, with the industry providing relevant support, such as,
attachments and research
...

The education and training sub-sector would also require addressing cross cutting issues in vision
planning
...


Health Sector
The health sector in Kenya is presently faced with challenges of accessibility to services, availability
of services especially in remote parts of the country, and affordability where the services are
available
...
Regional disparities in access were looked at as well as the
quality of service delivery systems, quality and quantity of health sector personnel, health care inputs
and health sector knowledge generation through research
...
The sector vision envisages overcoming
the current constraints in the sector by the year 2030
...

The strategies for the sector were categorized into three strategic thrusts namely Health structures,
Health service delivery and partnerships, and Equitable Health financing mechanism
...
In addition, the objective of the equitable financing
thrust is to introduce a purchaser provider system
...

Overall goal for the medium term is to “Reduce health inequalities and reverse the downward trend
in the health related impacts and outcome indicators”
...


18

In terms of health service delivery, the 2012 goals are to (i) Make Kenya a regional health service
hub (ii) Reduce the shortage of HRH by 60 percent (iii) Have professional managers in all hospitals
(iv) have Health centres of excellence (v) Institutionalise PPPs
...
The strategies for achieving these
goals are summarised in box 6 below which highlights the vision and high level strategies for the
health sector
...
The vision team and the stakeholders identified several
challenges relating to each of these five areas
...
Kenya has renewable fresh water per capita of
647m3 compared to the United Nations recommended minimum of 1000m3 implying that it is a
water scarce country
...
This is worsened by the degradation of water catchment areas
...
The water supply is also affected by poor infrastructural development, pollution and
poor water quality and the fact that unaccounted for water is very high at 60 percent
...
In the same breath irrigation and drainage suffers from lack the massive capital investment
19

required for irrigation, Lack of irrigation policy, legal and institutional framework, Inadequate water
in the irrigation schemes and inefficient water use arising from poor technology being applied
...
Therefore, the Vision for the water and
sanitation sector is “To ensure Water and Improved Sanitation availability and access to all by
2030”
...

In these areas Kenya would need to increase fresh water availability and establish water monitoring
programme; improve water storage capacity; upgrade supply in urban areas and expand supply in
rural areas; expand sewerage coverage; and Expand area under irrigation and drainage respectively
...
Specific goals set to be achieved between 2008
and 2012 include to (i) Increase regular monitoring of water resources to 70 percent, (ii) Implement
the two water catchment management strategies, (iii) Double water storage per capita to 16 m3, (iv)
Increase water access in urban to 72 percent and rural to 59, (v) Reduce unaccounted for water from
60 percent to 30 percent, (vi) Attain 70 percent and 65 percent access to safe sanitation and 40
percent and 10 percent sewerage access in urban and rural areas respectively, (vii) Increase area
under irrigation to 210,000 hectares, and (viii) Increase drainage area to 90,000 hectares
...

To improve water storage capacity and harvesting the vision document recommends increased
investment in the water storage infrastructure; developing innovative community based methods and
technology for water harvesting; and developing water conservation structures in ASAL areas such
as dams and water pans
...

To expand sewerage services, the initiatives recommended for pursuit between 2008 and 2012
include promoting the use of VIP latrines and septic tanks in rural areas to include schools adhering
to the ratio of 35:1 for boys and 25:1 for girls; developing and expanding sewerage schemes
especially in the urban areas; and promoting public health education on sanitation
...


Environment
The Vision 2030 diagnostics and stakeholder reviews looked at environmental challenges facing
Kenya
...

Kenya’s natural resource base is threatened by Continued deforestation and poaching, Human
wildlife conflicts, Increased occurrence of Alien and invasive species, Depletion of marine resources
(fish), Lack of effective policy, regulatory and institutional framework, and Environmental
degradation and encroachment in fragile ecosystems
...
Other environmental challenges include low innovation in utilization of
natural resources, inadequate capacity to apply scientific environmental research and the country’s
inability to adopt new technologies
...
The vision for
environment is, therefore, “A nation living in a clean, secure and sustainable environment”
...
The overall goal of environmental policies and strategies in the medium
term is to promote and safeguard the state of environment for economic growth
...

The strategies outlined for achieving these environmental conservation goals include Rehabilitation
of degraded forest areas and promotion of farm forestry, Securing global payment for ecosystem
services such as Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), User compensation for environmental
services, Enhancing Community livelihood from wildlife and forest management, Use of Research
21

and Development, Securing wildlife corridors and migratory routes, and Improving security of
boundaries of protected areas
To address pollution and improve waste management, vision 2030 recommends Development and
enforcement of regulations on pollution and waste management, creating awareness on pollution and
waste management, Design and application of economic incentive and dis- incentive measures,
Developing and enforcing plastic regulations, Public private partnership for municipal waste
management, and Reduction in importation of oil with high S02
...

In environmental planning and governance the strategy is to Upgrade capacity for enhanced geoinformation coverage and application, Harmonize environmental related laws, Strengthen
institutional capacities, Use of incentives for environmental compliance, and adopt multi-sectoral
planning approach (SEA, ecosystems management plans, NEAPs)
...
The housing sector is particularly faced with a myriad of
challenges including inadequate public-private sector participation framework and investment in
housing, low level of urban home ownership, low incomes, limited range of low cost building
materials and appropriate construction technologies, extensive inappropriate dwelling units such as
slums, lack of comprehensive housing sector legal framework, multiple approval procedures and
institutions, inaccurate land records and fraudulent practices, financial system that limits accessibility
to housing finance for Developers and Homeowners, lack of serviced land for development, lack of
tenure security especially in slums, proliferation of squatter and informal settlements, inadequate
urban and regional planning and management, lack of decentralization, devolution and urban
development policy, and weak enforcement of standards, codes and policies
...
The vision for housing and
urbanization is therefore “An adequately and decently housed nation”
...
These
are planning and management, housing development, finance, and legal and administrative reforms
...

With respect to housing the objective is to facilitate the development and access to affordable and
adequate housing
...

The challenges in the area of finance for housing will be overcome through an enhanced access to
adequate finance for both developers and buyers
...

In reforming legislative, institutional and regulatory framework the Government will (i) finalise
legislation for the housing sector, (ii) Prepare national land use policy, (iii) Prepare urban
development policy, (v) Prepare a Sessional paper on land policy, (vi) develop a framework for PPPs
in the housing sector, (vii) Create institutions that strengthen implementation of policies,
programmes and projects, (ix) enforce standards and codes, and (x) formulate and implement zoning
regulations
...
This will imply an
increase of 300 percent in new housing development per year during the period
...
Key challenges that clearly emerged in the gender
dimension were purchasing power disparity between Kenyan men and women, low numbers of
women at all decision making levels with parliament only having 7 percent in 2007, and the number
of people traveling for over 5Km to public amenities, most of who are women, remaining high at 50
percent
...
The challenges for the youth and vulnerable groups are summarized below
...
e
...
4 million
People with special needs e
...
the 25
...
4% who are mentally challenged

•
•
•
•
•
•

Low post primary education transition rate,
retention and completion rates
Low levels of entrepreneurial, technical,
managerial, creativity, leadership and life
skills
High youth unemployment at 75%
Very high level of young convicts (16-25
Years) at 57%
Low numbers of youth in positions of
responsibility/leadership
Disproportionately high numbers of new
HIV/AIDS infections among the youth

Gender Challenges
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Purchasing power disparity
...
g
...

Number of people traveling for over 5Km to public amenities too high at 50%
...

Low access to family planning methods
...

Adult literacy rates - men 78%, women 70%
...
g
...

The poor among men and women at 48% and 50% respectively in rural areas and at 30% and 46%
respectively in urban areas
...
The vision
for gender therefore is, “Men and women enjoying a high quality of life and equal
opportunities”
...

Achievement of these milestones will require several strategic interventions to achieve medium to
long term goals
...

The strategies specified to move Kenya towards these goals are through Increased employment
opportunities, Affirmative action, Increased social amenities, Improved access to health care Train
more nurses and doctors, Increased adult literacy programmes, Increased capacity of police to
handle cases of violence against women, Elimination of retrogressive cultural practices like female

24

genital mutilation, and encouraging wholesome family units that promote social values and norms
consistent with vision 2030
...
4 million to 1
...

The 2012 goals for the youth include to significantly increase post primary education transitional,
retention and completion rates, Raise levels of entrepreneurial, technical, managerial, creativity,
leadership and life skills by 70 percent, Reduce youth unemployment from 75 percent to 35 percent,
Reduce young convicts (16-25 years) from 57 percent to 30 percent, Increase numbers of youth in
positions of responsibility/leadership by 50 percent, and reduce new HIV/AIDS infections among the
youth by 80 percent
...
g
...


2
...
This will be a complete overhaul
of the current system dominated by tribal and regional political alliances with emphasis on patronage
rather than issues
...
The visions in each of these areas
respectively are (i) Adherence to the rule of law applicable to a modern, market-based economy in a
human rights-respecting state, (ii) Genuinely competitive and issue-based politics, (iii) People
centred and politically engaged open society, (iv) Transparent, accountable, ethical and results
oriented government institutions, (v) Policy driven and service focused government institutions, and
(v) Security of all persons and property throughout the Republic of Kenya
...
This will be the
cornerstone of all the reforms necessary in the political arena
...
1
...
2
...
3
...
g
...

1
...
Establish centres of excellence throughout the country
1
...
Introduce diverse demand side financing mechanisms to cushion the poor students, e
...
enhanced bursaries, voucher scheme and special grants
...
6
...
7
...
8
...

1
...
Rationalize academic programmes among the various institutions, creating centres of excellence and comparative advantage in line with vision 2030 target
growth sectors
...
10
...
11
...

1
...
Provide scholarships based on the needs of the economy (growth pillars) and affirmative action for the marginalized areas
...
1
...
2 Develop a comprehensive community-based Health
information system
2
...
4 World class medical centres in Mombasa and Nakuru
geared to local and international markets
2
...
6 Institutionalise PPPs and integrate in health Act
2
...
8 Amend the public health Act to allow issuance of grants
to health facilities
2
...
1
...
2
Rehabilitation of 600 hydro meteorological
stations
3
...
4
Develop 22 medium sized multi purpose dams
3
...
6
Tana delta initiative and rehabilitation of the
Bura irrigation scheme
...
1

4
...
3
4
...
5

Mau, Mt
...
1

5
...
3
5
...
5

5
...
7

Prepare metropolitan development and investment
plans for Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru, and
Eldoret regions
...
110)
Urban housing infrastructure programme, Service
10,000 plots in cities and municipalities

Gender, Youth and Vulnerable Groups
6
...
2
6
...
4
6
...
6

Increase the Women Enterprise Fund from 1
billion to 2 billion
Establish a coordinated social protection fund of
2% of GDP
Rehabilitate/build at least one youth polytechnic in
each constituency
Establish a sports lottery fund
Build a ‘Kenya Music Hall of fame’ & an
international academy of sports
Increase and sustain youth enterprise fund from
1billion to 2 billion

Political Pillar
7
...
2 Jud icial an d leg al refo rms
7
...
4 Build in g a n o n -partisan
Parliamen tary research cen tre

3
...
Relevant policies for consolidating economic recovery and
driving Kenya to higher growth and development path have therefore been brought forth
...
If fully implemented the vision would
propel the country to a higher development pedestal
...
3 look at “how much of Kenya’s growth
experience is explicable in terms of growth regressions and the extent to which the variables in these
regressions can be used to explain the country’s economic growth over the last 40 years or so”
...
Their conclusions ascertain this pre-supposition
...


26

In its financial sector strategies, the vision will enable the country to rapidly accumulate savings and
hence increase gross investment to levels that will increase growth and enhance the pace of
development
...
Commercialization of agriculture, increased crop specialization,
creation of disease free zones for livestock and opening up of new lands will greatly enhance
productivity in the agriculture and livestock sector
...
Moreover, the
programmes that aim at opening up the currently remote parts of the country will greatly increase the
productive capacity of the economy
...
In the area of oil price fluctuations the vision could have accommodated recommendations,
for instance, to develop facilities for reserve oil storage or entering into protocols with oil producing
countries to get oil at preferential rates
...
Perhaps the vision
development process fell into this trap by completely leaving out some small sectors such as mining
and petroleum sub sectors
...

Furthermore, there was lack of scenario anticipation especially in the macroeconomic framework
underpinning Vision 2030
...
For instance, economic growth was not expected to taper off in 2008 and
perhaps 2009 following post election violence that erupted in 2008 followed by drought experienced
later that year
...
This slowdown has definitely affected
the Kenyan growth momentum which will need to be rebuilt
...

While priority sector identification was quite credible, it is not clear how financial services sector
was identified as an enabler while infrastructure development was left out as a transversal reform
...
In fact during the vision development
some financial sector players contended that the financial sector does not need to be a priority sector
in the vision as availability of financial services and depth of the sector will automatically be pulled
by the level of development and the needs of the economy at any state of development
...

Aggressive expansion of energy sector alone would create fairly high levels of employment in under
27

exploited energy sources such as Geo-Thermal generation, wind power in parts of Eastern and North
Eastern Provinces and Solar Energy in most part of the country
...
Its success will, however, depend on the
management of political transitions and reform of institutions especially those targeted by the
political pillar of the vision document
...
The recommended
reforms of the pensions sector, the insurance industry, the capital markets and strengthening of the
banking sector as spelt out in Vision 2030 will be critical in allowing the country to achieve this shift
as these are the sectors critical for mobilisation of savings
...
Government of Kenya, Ministry of Planning and National Development, 2007: Kenya Vision 2030
2
...
Published by the Government Printer, Nairobi
3
...
UNAIDS/WHO, 2004 Update: Epidemiological Fact Sheet on HIV/AIDS and Sexually Transmitted
Infections
...
Benno J
...
2008: The Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa, 1960-2000
...
International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Database, October 2008

28



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